Well it’s been over 7 weeks since the Referendum vote and
we have had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British
public took.
I had gone to bed the night before with a draft of my Remain article nicely all
but finished, to be presented, at just after 5am, with the declaration by the BBC
saying we were leaving the EU. I don’t think any of us were expecting that.
In this article I would like to take my thoughts on from that initial
article and now start to see the clearer picture as the dust settles on the UK,
but more importantly, the Royal Tunbridge Wells Property Market.
In case you weren’t aware, the residents of
the Tunbridge Wells Borough Council Council area went with the National mood
and voted as follows ..
Tunbridge Wells
Borough Council Remain Votes 35,676 (54.9%
of the vote)
Tunbridge Wells
Borough Council Leave Votes 29,320 (45.1%
of the vote)
Tunbridge
Wells Borough Council Turnout 79.1%
I have been reading there
is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote
Remain than their parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's
techniques may have been widely criticised, following them getting both the
2010 General Election and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many
surveys seem to suggest there was a relationship between age and likelihood to
support leaving the EU.
Interestingly, the average age of a Royal
Tunbridge Wells resident is 39.6 years old, which is above the national average
of 39.3, which might go someway to back up the way Royal Tunbridge Wells voted?
What I do know is that putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter,
the vote to leave has, and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the
British property market needs is uncertainty (because as with previous episodes
of uncertainty in the UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).
Interestingly, when we look at the
Homeownership rates in the Tunbridge Wells Borough Council Council area, of the 31,374 properties that are owned in
the Tunbridge Wells Borough Council Council area (Owned being owned
outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the age range paints a
noteworthy picture.
Age 16 to 34 homeowners
2,474 or 7.8% (Nationally
9.6%)
Age 35 to 49 homeowners
9,579 or 30.5% (Nationally 29.2%)
Age 50 to 64 homeowners
9,814 or 31.3% (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged 65+ homeowners
9,507 or 30.3% (Nationally 30.5%)
So, looking at these figures, and the high
proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the Tunbridge Wells Borough
Council Council area homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and
younger people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford
to buy?
But there's a risk in oversimplifying this. The sample
of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its
millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people
voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education,
the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the
various parts of the UK voted.
So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume everyone over
the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’;
because many didn't!
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